School Finance
April 10, 2007

Current Economic Climate - Winter 2007

(Download Complete Information Bulletin - PDF 250KB)

The purpose of this bulletin is to provide local leaders with information on key economic trends that make up the current economic climate. These trends are significant because they impact the availability of funds for education, health care, and other public services at the national, state, and local levels.

This bulletin is issued twice each calendar year -- summer and winter -- and presents information about changes in the gross domestic product, employment and unemployment, consumer prices, retail sales, housing, industrial production, and stock market performance. Other pertinent trends are described as well. In addition, a brief summary of projections for the economy is presented. Finally, comments on both the Federal and State Budgets are offered. We will continue to issue regular monthly Information Bulletins on the Consumer Price Index.

This is the eighth issue of the Current Economic Climate. Your comments and suggestions on this series of Information Bulletins are most welcome. Please contact Dan Kinley or Neil Foley at NYSUT Research and Educational Services with your feedback and comments.

No. 200706
Released April 2007

Highlights

  • The annual average growth of the Real Gross Domestic Product for 2006 was 3.4 percent which compares to 3.2 percent for 2005, 3.9 percent for 2004, 2.5 percent for 2003, 1.6 percent for 2002 and 0.8 percent for 2001.
  • The national unemployment rate for December 2006 was 4.5 percent which is the lowest since December of 2000.
  • The New York State unemployment rate for December 2006 of 4.0 percent which matches the lowest level on record according to the New York State Department of Labor
  • New York State employment in December of 2006 was 8,742.2 million workers, an increase of 61,800 workers from December of 2005.
  • The manufacturing sector in New York State has lost 388,000 jobs from December 1990 to December of 2006, a loss of 41 percent.
  • For the calendar year 2006 the Consumer Price Index was up 3.2 percent which compares to an increase of 3.4 percent for calendar year 2005 over calendar year 2004.
  • According to the Congressional Budget Office, the Federal Deficit is projected to be in the vicinity of $200 billion.
  • The New York State Division of the Budget states that there is a current year (2006-07) surplus of $1.5 billion. The potential imbalance for 2007-08 of $1.6 billion is overcome through a combination of budget growth limitations most notably in Medicaid and increased revenue collections as a result of closing tax law loopholes.